Received 12.02.2026
Revised 03.03.2026
Accepted 26.03.2026
Published 07.04.2026
Retrieved from Iss. 119, 2026
Pages 262 -272
Abstract
The article scientifically substantiates mathematical methods for assessing the residual life of flexible pavements in Ukraine following extreme winter loads. The authors analyze a complex of destructive factors: adverse climate, chronic underfunding, and violations of technological standards. Particular attention is paid to the budget deficit during martial law, which precludes scheduled repairs and leads to a landslide degradation of strategic transport network objects amid changing logistical routes. Within the scope of the study, the mechanisms of thermal influence on road materials are expanded through the prism of the theory of thermomechanics of multilayer media and processes of hydrothermal wedging of pavements. Based on the mathematical relationship between the stress-strain state of the structure and the durability index according to the Palmgren-Miner law, a critical discrepancy was identified between outdated design standards (6-10 t per axle) and modern loading standards (11.5-13 t). It is proved that such a disproportion provokes an accelerated depletion of the pavement's service life by 4-7.5 times, effectively neutralizing the safety margin of the structures. Through the application of numerical modeling methods and the processing of instrumental survey data, the current state of the road network is defined as marginal (1.55-2.45 points), requiring immediate scientific intervention. The paper critically evaluates the practice of pothole repair as a temporary measure. The authors emphasize that the effectiveness of local restoration is low without considering the relaxation function of asphalt concrete and the optimization of the rheological properties of mixtures. Тhe economic inexpediency of pothole patching when the threshold of the relative area of destruction exceeds 30% is theoretically substantiated. Overcoming this limit indicates a loss of load-bearing capacity and the necessity for capital restoration. The article proposes a transition to digital monitoring tools through the development of applied engineering methodologies. Further research will focus on analyzing the phenomenon of "hydrothermal wedging" and developing predictive tables for residual life based on the refined Palmgren-Miner law for heavy-duty vehicles. A specific area of focus is improving energy efficiency by using additives for low-temperature asphalt paving. Implementing these steps will transform mathematical modeling into a practical monitoring tool and ensure the integration of Ukraine's infrastructure into a unified European digital network
Keywords:
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